November 2014 Market Update
A lot of good news lately, including positive 3rd Q earnings reports, improved home sales, continued low interest rates and a stronger than expected 3rd Q GDP at 3.5%. All this good news and the FED indicates that they will stop buying bonds and continue to keep rates low for some time to come. This is being driven by the fact that the real unemployment rate (U6) is still high at 11.5% at the end of September, which Janet Yellen continues to mention, and indicates that interest rates will remain low until the U6 number improves. The private sector will be expected to produce new jobs as the government continues to trim jobs. The good news is that the real unemployment rate is below 12% for the first time since the recession. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/september-jobs-report-indicates-stronger-201927521.html;_ylt=AwrSyCT9blJUE1cA306TmYlQ
The FED is also concerned about the slower than desired recovery of the housing market. Lower rates will help, but Dodd Frank regulations are making it incredibly difficult to qualify for a home loan and have stymied home sales. Lower oil prices are certainly helping keep inflation under control, and with the US poised to surpass Saudi Arabia as the top global oil producer by 2015, oil prices should continue to remain low for some time to come. Finally, the FED can afford to keep interest rates at present levels, because our interest rates are higher than the other global economic powers, which have been forced to keep their interest rates lower than the US in hopes of stimulating their struggling economies, causing US Treasuries to continue to remain an attractive investment globally. The FED is easing on stimulus, while foreign investors added more Treasuries in August than any time this year.
The following is a link to an excellent article on the present state on the economy and forecast of where interest rates may be headed. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-03/bond-market-demand-for-treasuries-means-nobody-mourns-end-of-qe.html
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